Saturday, December 31, 2011

Top 10 pundit do-overs of 2011 (Politico)

The wildly volatile early stages of the Republican presidential race made it especially hard for pundits to see around corners this year ? particularly when the line between prognosticating and wishing seemed occasionally to disappear. Trying to gauge the impact of scandals also proved difficult. And a tragic crime caused some classic overreaction.

Here are the year?s biggest screw-ups from the commentariat.

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Violent right-wing rhetoric caused the Tucson shootings.

Jared Loughner is crazy. That?s the opinion of the experts who diagnosed him with schizophrenia, the judge who ruled in May that he was not mentally competent to stand trial, and many of the friends and family members who watched him stop making sense, stop being able to hold down a job and stop being able to relate to people in recent years.

These facts were not yet widely known on Jan. 8, the day that Loughner shot Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) in the head and killed six others in Tucson, but that didn?t stop the country?s most prominent liberal commentators from drawing political meaning out of the act that very day.

Within hours of the shooting, Paul Krugman posted to his blog and Keith Olbermann demanded on the air that conservative figures like Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin disavow their violent rhetoric.

Subsequent reporting suggested that Loughner was not engaged in partisan politics, and as Time magazine later put it in its look into Loughner?s mental state, ?In short, saying Sarah Palin or Glenn Beck caused Loughner?s actions is, to put it charitably, completely idiotic.?

Michele Bachmann will win the Republican nomination.

Bachmann?s moment at the top of the polls in Iowa may have been fleeting, but in midsummer it was convincing enough to inspire MSNBC?s Chris Matthews to make a bold prediction: She would beat Mitt Romney and win the Republican nomination for president.

Matthews told the live audience on ?Real Time With Bill Maher? in July, ?She?s my hero. She?s going all the way. She?s going to win this thing. I tell you right now, I predict she beats Romney. She?s going to beat him in New Hampshire.?

He pointed to Pat Buchanan?s performance in the state against George H.W. Bush and McCain?s victory over Romney last time around. ?I think you?re going to see a huge upset,? he predicted, because Bachmann has ?passion? and is ?not a fake.?

Current polling puts her in a single-digit fifth place in both Iowa and the nation ? and a 3.8 percent in New Hampshire, according to the Real Clear Politics average.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/politics/*http%3A//us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/external/politico_rss/rss_politico_mostpop/http___www_politico_com_news_stories1211_70862_html/44022265/SIG=11m7jctvf/*http%3A//www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/70862.html

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Thursday, December 22, 2011

Obama, Boehner lock horns in payroll tax fight (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) ? President Barack Obama demanded on Tuesday that Republicans in the House of Representatives pass a short-term extension of a payroll tax cut, showing an unwillingness to back down in a fight that could result in higher taxes for 160 million Americans.

The Republican-led House earlier rejected a short-term deal passed by Democrats and fellow Republicans in the Senate over the weekend and called for fresh negotiations on the expiring tax break that saves the average American worker $1,000 a year.

As both sides dug more deeply into entrenched positions, House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, demanded Obama order Senate Democrats back into session to haggle over a year-long extension.

"I need the president to help out," Boehner told reporters, drawing applause from a large group of Republican lawmakers standing behind him in the Capitol.

In a surprise appearance in the White House briefing room, a visibly frustrated Obama told lawmakers to put politics aside. "Let's not play brinkmanship," he said.

"The clock is ticking. Time is running out. And if the House Republicans refuse to vote for the Senate bill or even allow it to come up for a vote, taxes will go up in 11 days," he said.

Prospects for the Democratic-controlled Senate reopening negotiations remained dim as Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid insisted he would not recall the chamber to reopen negotiations. Reid has won backing from some Republicans in the Senate, who have called on their colleagues in the House to back the deal.

Reid "will stick to his guns" and refuse to reopen negotiations, a senior Democratic aide said after the House vote. "Taxes will go up -- or Boehner will cave," the aide said.

Both parties believe they have the upper hand in the year-end battle. Republicans are betting Democrats fear a voter backlash in 2012 if the tax break expires and will eventually bow to their demands. Democrats, however, are gambling the same is true for Republicans.

The House Republican demand for a one-year extension marks a surprising turnabout since for months they were openly skeptical of its economic benefits. Now they argue a two-month extension creates uncertainty for workers and employers and is unworkable.

RECESSION THREAT

The Senate passed the short-term extension on Saturday because Republicans and Democrats could not agree on how to pay for it for a full year. It was not clear how House Republicans hope to overcome that hurdle.

The U.S. Treasury Department weighed into the debate for the first time, saying while it would prefer a full-year extension, it could implement the short-term measure.

Failure to extend the tax break and benefits for millions of unemployed Americans, which expire on December 31, could heighten the possibility of a U.S. recession in 2012, some economists have warned.

"You're either going to have an okay rate of economic growth next year or a pretty subpar one, and it will be determined in large part by U.S. politicians," said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management in Toronto.

Many had expected the year-end negotiations on renewing the tax break would be difficult, but what had been thought to be a brawl has exploded into a full-scale battle.

Washington gridlock and dysfunction is fueling an anti-incumbent mood among voters heading into next year's elections, with Congress' popularity at a very low 11 percent.

The political bickering has brought the government to the verge of a shutdown three times this year and led to rating agency Standard & Poor's cutting America's prized AAA credit rating.

The biggest sticking point for a year-long extension is how to cover the $120 billion in lost revenue to the Social Security Trust Fund. Republicans are demanding spending cuts to cover the cost and Democrats want to pay for it by closing some tax breaks for the wealthy.

The Senate bill included a provision demanded by House Republicans that would force Obama to accelerate a decision on TransCanada Corp's Keystone XL oil pipeline project between Canada and Texas, which is backed by some labor unions but opposed by environmental groups.

Over the weekend Boehner called the Keystone provision a victory for House Republicans because Obama had strongly opposed efforts to link Keystone with the payroll tax cut.

But the "sweetener" was not enough to quell overwhelming opposition to the Senate bill. The revolt has raised questions about Boehner's ability to control his restive caucus, which has repeatedly balked this year at compromising with Democrats.

(Additional reporting by Paul Eckert, Donna Smith, Leah Schnurr, Rachelle Younglai, Kim Dixon and Caren Bohan; writing by Deborah Charles and David Lawder; Editing by Ross Colvin and Todd Eastham)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/democrats/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111220/ts_nm/us_usa_taxes

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Saturday, December 17, 2011

Video: Money In Motion Web Extra

Web-only advice and information for currency traders, with CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Money In Motion traders.

Related Links:

Business & financial news headlines from msnbc.com

Source: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/cnbc/45703588/

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Friday, December 16, 2011

How PC Makers Can Stave Off Obsolescence

It's a scary time to be a PC manufacturer. Tablets and smartphones have changed consumer expectations of computing devices, and that includes notebook and desktop PCs, not just mobile products.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GearFactor/~3/O6N0pR8Bkp0/

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Wednesday, December 7, 2011

How often do US military drones 'disappear'?

The US military acknowledged that one of its unmanned aerial vehicles?had gone missing over western Afghanistan last week. With no pilot in the cockpit, drones can be tricky to fly.

So just how often do US military drones "disappear"?

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The US military acknowledged Sunday that one of its unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAV?s, had gone missing over western Afghanistan late last week.

?The operators of the UAV lost control of the aircraft and had been working to determine its status,? a statement released by NATO forces in Afghanistan said Sunday.

The news caused an uproar when Iran claimed to have found the UAV ? and that it is a highly-secretive RQ-170, the same drone reportedly used in the US Special Operations raid on Osama bin Laden?s compound in May.?

It is not often that the Pentagon loses track of its drones for any extended period of time, analysts say. In this particular case, it is possible that military officials know where the drone is, but would rather not acknowledge that it?s in Iranian hands.

This puts US military officials in a tricky position, as demonstrated when Pentagon officials sought Monday to assure reporters that ? wherever it might be ? the drone definitely was not shot down, as Iran claims.?

?The one thing I can tell you is we don?t have any indications that the UAV ? that we no longer have ? was brought down by hostile activity of any kind,? Captain John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, said.

That is not to say that it?s particularly difficult to shoot down the vast majority of drones in the Pentagon's arsenal.?

The US military first began using Predators in Europe in 1995, for example, but pulled them out after Serbian air defense gunners shot down two of them.

In 1999, at least 22 drones were felled by enemy fire or crashed due to mechanical failure over Kosovo.

At the end of 2002 ? just before the US invasion of Iraq ? Predators armed with Stinger missiles flew over Iraq?s no-fly zone in an effort to ?bait? the Iraqi Air Force?s supersonic MiG-25 aircraft.?

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/lcmrMYLk8cE/How-often-do-US-military-drones-disappear

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Multinational firms placing less importance on China: survey (Reuters)

SHANGHAI (Reuters) ? Multinational companies operating in China are placing less importance on the world's second-biggest economy amid rising local competition and concern over intellectual property (IP) rights, a survey showed on Wednesday.

Close to half of 328 companies that took part in the survey conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said they had higher expectations for China following the 2008/09 global financial crisis, with 17 percent saying they expected it to become their top market within five years.

But those that saw China as "critical to global strategy" fell to 37 percent, from 53 percent in a similar survey in 2004.

"I think this represents a degree of caution," Laurel West, Asia director of industrial and management research at EIU, told a news conference. EIU is a sister company of The Economist magazine.

She said the reading was also a reflection of companies placing more focus on other emerging markets, such as Brazil, India, Indonesia and Vietnam, as well as concern over Chinese government policies.

Nearly half said they were concerned that they would have to give up IP in exchange for market access, while 46 percent said the regulatory environment would have a significant impact on their China strategy over the next five years.

The survey was conducted between late June and July on multinationals based in Europe, North America and Asia.

IP RIGHTS VIOLATIONS

China has been repeatedly criticized for widespread violations of IP rights, with copies of expensive brands of watches, bags and computer software still widely available.

An annual survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, which bills itself as the "voice of American business" in China, showed in January that 71 percent of respondents said enforcement of IP rights had stayed the same or deteriorated in 2010, up from 61 percent in 2009 and 64 percent in 2008.

In May, a survey by the European Union Chamber of Commerce showed a similar rise in corporate concern over IP protection, although 57 percent of respondents said China was of growing importance to their business, up from 40 percent in 2010.

The EIU survey also showed that only a quarter of larger multinational companies felt they had superior technology or stronger branding amid increasing competition for talent with local companies.

Of the 70 companies it surveyed that disclosed China revenue, the EIU said only 10 -- including Mead Johnson Nutrition Co (MJN.N), BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP.AX) (BLT.L), Yum Brands Inc (YUM.N) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD.N) -- had China sales that made up more than 20 percent of global income.

(Reporting by Kazunori Takada; Editing by Chris Lewis and Muralikumar Anantharaman)

In second paragraph corrects number of survey respondents to 328 not 238, and fixes spelling of Economist Intelligence Unit.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/asia/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111207/bs_nm/us_china_multinational_survey

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Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Putin's party losing support in parliamentary vote (AP)

MOSCOW ? Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's party was struggling to reach 50 percent in Russia's parliamentary election, polls and official results showed Sunday, suggesting Russians were wearying of the man who has dominated Russian politics for more than a decade.

Rival parties and election monitors said even this figure was inflated, alleging ballot-stuffing and other significant violations at the polls. Many expressed fears that the vote count would be manipulated.

Putin wanted to see his United Russia party do well in the election as a sign of public support for his return to the presidency in a vote now three months away ? one that he is still expected to win easily.

Putting a positive spin on the disappointing returns, Putin said "we can ensure the stable development of the country with this result," but he appeared glum and limited his remarks to two sentences.

Despite the setback, he was still expected to win the March presidential election and reclaim the position he held from 2000 to 2008. Putin has systematically destroyed any potential challengers. And most Russians do not see any credible alternatives, despite growing dissatisfaction with his strongman style, pervasive official corruption and the gap between ordinary people and the superrich.

United Russia held a two-thirds majority in the outgoing State Duma, which allowed it to change the constitution unchallenged. But it is increasingly disliked, seen as representing a corrupt bureaucracy and known to many as the "party of crooks and thieves."

The Communist Party appeared to be benefiting from the protest vote, with exit polls and the early returns predicting it would get nearly 20 percent, up from less than 12 percent four years ago.

The first official results with more than 25 percent of the vote counted showed about 47 percent for United Russia, compared to 64 percent in 2007. This was in line with an exit poll conducted by the VTsIOM polling agency that had United Russia tallying 48.5 percent and another done by the FOM polling agency that had it winning 46 percent of the vote. The two polls were reported by the two state television channels.

Complete results were expected at 0600 GMT Monday (1 a.m. EDT).

Only seven parties were allowed to field candidates for parliament this year, while the most vocal opposition groups have been denied registration and barred from campaigning.

Several parties complained Sunday of extensive election violations aimed at boosting United Russia's vote count, including party observers being hindered in their work.

Communist chief Gennady Zyuganov said his party monitors thwarted an attempt to stuff a ballot box at a Moscow polling station where they found 300 ballots already in the box before the start of the vote.

He said incidents of ballot-stuffing were reported at several other stations in Moscow, Rostov-on-Don and other areas. In the southern city of Krasnodar, unidentified people posing as Communist monitors had shown up at polling stations and the real observers from the party weren't allowed in, Zyuganov said.

In Vladivostok, voters complained to police that United Russia was offering free food in exchange for promises to vote for the party.

Russia's only independent election monitoring group, Golos, has come under strong official pressure and its website was incapacitated by hackers on Sunday. Golos was still able to field more than 2,000 observers and they reported numerous violations, director Liliya Shibanova said.

She said many of the violations involved absentee ballots, including so-called "cruise voting" where people with the ballots are bused to multiple polling stations. In the Volga River city of Samara, observers and election commission members from opposition parties were barred from verifying that the ballot boxes were properly sealed at all polling stations, Shibanova said.

In Moscow, several journalists, including a photographer for The Associated Press, were briefly detained after taking pictures at a polling station.

Mikhail Kasyanov, a former prime minister during Putin's first presidential term, said he and other opposition activists who voted Sunday are under no illusion that their votes will be counted fairly.

"It is absolutely clear there will be no real count," he said. "The authorities created an imitation of a very important institution whose name is free election, that is not free and is not elections."

A few dozen activists of the Left Front opposition group tried to stage an unsanctioned protest just outside Red Square on Sunday, but were quickly dispersed by police, who detained about a dozen of them. Later in the evening, police said they arrested more than 100 other opposition demonstrators in the capital and about 70 in St. Petersburg when they attempted to hold an unauthorized rally.

The websites of Golos and Ekho Moskvy, a prominent, independent-minded radio station were down on Sunday. Both claimed the failures were due to denial-of-service hacker attacks.

"The attack on the site on election day is obviously connected to attempts to interfere with publication of information about violations," Ekho Moskvy editor Alexei Venediktov said in a Twitter post. The site was back up in the evening.

Golos, which is funded by U.S. and European grants, has come under heavy official pressure in the past week after Putin accused Western governments of trying to influence the election and likened recipients of Western aid to Judas.

Shibanova, the Golos leader, said its hotline was flooded Sunday with automated calls that effectively blocked it. Prior to the vote, many of the group's activists were visited by security agents, while Shibanova was held for 12 hours at an airport and forced to hand over her laptop.

The group had compiled some 5,300 complaints of election-law violations ahead of the vote, most of which were linked to United Russia. Roughly a third of the complainants ? mostly government workers and students ? said their employers and professors were pressuring them to vote for the party.

____

Jim Heintz, Nataliya Vasilyeva and Vladimir Isachenkov contributed to this report.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/europe/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111204/ap_on_re_eu/eu_russia_election

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